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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-18🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 63e89fb3

Henry Bolte Over 0.5 Total Bases

Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics

-170risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-170

Closing

-200

CLV

+5.88%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 71.5% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +8.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Los Angeles Angels0
Athletics5
Winner: Athletics · 2026-06-18
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
2
Settled
2
Hit rate
100.0%
2-0
ROI
+57.26%
+0.17u
CLV avg
-0.31%
n=2
Last 6 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (2 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-200
1.5000
Delta
+5.88%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1213
UUIDa8fe5244-3bef-4926-a16e-315c84e9a171
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-18 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-06-19 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash63e89fb394176ec9e58a02857e18490120edae6603b2341c52412323dc1fe223
Closing line-200 captured 2026-06-19 00:11 UTC
CLV delta+5.88%
Closing hash741c136c726ed6c95751e36c08f4384b72eede7b392640013fd3b233688439a7

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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