Henry Bolte Over 0.5 Total Bases
Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics
Edge
Empirical 71.5% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +8.5pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Final · Grading detail
Los Angeles Angels0
Athletics5
Winner: Athletics · 2026-06-18
Related Picks (16)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-200
1.5000
Delta
+5.88%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1213
UUIDa8fe5244-3bef-4926-a16e-315c84e9a171
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-18 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-06-19 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash63e89fb394176ec9e58a02857e18490120edae6603b2341c52412323dc1fe223
Closing line-200 captured 2026-06-19 00:11 UTC
CLV delta+5.88%
Closing hash741c136c726ed6c95751e36c08f4384b72eede7b392640013fd3b233688439a7
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Why this receipt is trustable
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