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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-19🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 57f92fbe

Ben Rice Over 0.5 Hits

LA Dodgers @ NY Yankees

-216risk0.16u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-216

Closing

-196

CLV

-3.13%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 88.4% over last 15 games vs 68.4% implied → +20.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Los Angeles Dodgers8
New York Yankees2
Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers · 2026-07-19
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
2
Settled
2
Hit rate
100.0%
2-0
ROI
+57.26%
+0.17u
CLV avg
-0.31%
n=2
Last 6 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (2 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-216
1.4630
Closing
-196
1.5102
Delta
-3.13%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1544
UUID28b3146e-7f59-42a1-985d-6d9ec89ba48b
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-19 14:18 UTC
Graded2026-07-20 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash57f92fbe81adfb342e4bbbbb9b972752d403cb1f5ef2f3e07ea0dbf21915889a
Closing line-196 captured 2026-07-19 22:03 UTC
CLV delta-3.13%
Closing hashe39d54c145db8d281599add46d5b0e28e4614372b1e205447caf94c2948641f9

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,127 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public10 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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