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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-19🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 9377f3d2

Ryan Jeffers Over 0.5 Hits

Minnesota Twins @ CHI Cubs

-194risk0.11u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-194

Closing

-231

CLV

+5.76%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 81.2% over last 15 games vs 66.0% implied → +15.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Minnesota Twins1
Chicago Cubs10
Winner: Chicago Cubs · 2026-07-19
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-194
1.5155
Closing
-231
1.4329
Delta
+5.76%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1543
UUIDc0b4fbe5-e72e-42ff-8f41-eab6ee63b748
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-19 14:18 UTC
Graded2026-07-20 00:45 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash9377f3d25f589fd822a16aca229d79f9f07a15ccae4e0a28bfa11ff90fde4d52
Closing line-231 captured 2026-07-19 16:57 UTC
CLV delta+5.76%
Closing hash2d38aa7a283c0a46744dca8055fbeff4ceb4963cb984ec3f3d1272a8e3bd4102

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.9% closed
    1,119 settled picks · 61.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public17 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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