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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-30🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 5c1748b1

Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored

Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays

-220risk0.1u→win0.05u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-220

Closing

-210

CLV

-1.47%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 68.8% implied → +10.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Texas Rangers2
Tampa Bay Rays3
Winner: Tampa Bay Rays · 2026-07-30
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-220
1.4545
Closing
-210
1.4762
Delta
-1.47%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1671
UUID9f7eaffe-c7fa-4e71-8d96-1d6eff9fab9a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-30 14:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-30 22:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash5c1748b108bc1261c5b76ea3089e542b8d7504957b61d8be1db7859244ea3e76
Closing line-210 captured 2026-07-30 14:54 UTC
CLV delta-1.47%
Closing hasha823fbc9a06caf97285d627d09f0435c0cac5e117160eff29b3ad83c60f8b30e

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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