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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-30🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 1f94d1a1

Everson Pereira Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored

New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

-250risk0.22u→win0.09u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-250

Closing

-220

CLV

-3.75%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 71.4% implied → +29.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
New York Yankees1
Chicago White Sox2
Winner: Chicago White Sox · 2026-07-30
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-250
1.4000
Closing
-220
1.4545
Delta
-3.75%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1669
UUID7b212696-3c3e-4a66-afbc-d7c324c20cd8
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-30 14:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-31 00:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1f94d1a1cfb5347695656f17b6f8f4cc03c49e51c9324032362689e7b537a111
Closing line-220 captured 2026-07-30 16:54 UTC
CLV delta-3.75%
Closing hash42dfbfecb24e79fc8ae2e764e3de0f744305fe5c241a4439e62979a625ba4555

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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