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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-30🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 4b3bc06b

Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

-200risk0.22u→win0.11u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-200

Closing

-200

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 66.7% implied → +33.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm) (ref: 44fc87)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Miami Marlins2
New York Mets4
Winner: New York Mets · 2026-07-30
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-200
1.5000
Closing
-200
1.5000
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1679
UUID58e80e58-de4e-4f1d-a50e-4e42a0280f12
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-30 21:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-31 05:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash4b3bc06b48a6321b327023a1a37cf254bc23f42afd1dcb490b70e2e4e6880aef
Closing line-200 captured 2026-07-30 21:54 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashaf4e098858a6b4c433395f0cfbeb950c3ce0dad1acc5397366b581a4ddcfd7a9

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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