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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-02🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED a2815c26

Ben Williamson Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored

Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

-235risk0.1u→win0.04u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-235

Closing

-235

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 70.1% implied → +10.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Chicago White Sox9
Tampa Bay Rays1
Winner: Chicago White Sox · 2026-08-02
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-235
1.4255
Closing
-235
1.4255
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1713
UUID9c519f5f-6b6c-4a56-89c4-e3fcb68bf4c2
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-02 15:02 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 23:47 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha2815c26d15f31ee8db9462230a33b349ed8457d5bd2e2e30eec64ce750dfbb4
Closing line-235 captured 2026-08-02 16:22 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash0fa790b6e9d272834c2f40e5ca8060265d363f607c2d334b8c2cdf2c47e88cdc

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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