Ben Williamson Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Edge
Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 70.1% implied → +10.0pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Chicago White Sox9
Tampa Bay Rays1
Winner: Chicago White Sox · 2026-08-02
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-235
1.4255
Closing
-235
1.4255
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1713
UUID9c519f5f-6b6c-4a56-89c4-e3fcb68bf4c2
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-02 15:02 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 23:47 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha2815c26d15f31ee8db9462230a33b349ed8457d5bd2e2e30eec64ce750dfbb4
Closing line-235 captured 2026-08-02 16:22 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash0fa790b6e9d272834c2f40e5ca8060265d363f607c2d334b8c2cdf2c47e88cdc
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Why this receipt is trustable
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