Colton Cowser Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles
Edge
Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 70.1% implied → +15.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Philadelphia Phillies8
Baltimore Orioles0
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-08-02
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-235
1.4255
Closing
-250
1.4000
Delta
+1.82%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1715
UUID9d80e5f5-cda7-4dca-ba74-abbfbe7a1401
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-02 15:02 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 23:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashaa5a1c48e956c1524bdb067746363d2ad83a33e3d334f80dc262db7bd596b335
Closing line-250 captured 2026-08-02 16:07 UTC
CLV delta+1.82%
Closing hash636ee6c8e27a175f7294544c8ce5fff32f77ffc8e68f148771705157c48295f7
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Why this receipt is trustable
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