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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-25🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 757b30b4

Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 Hits

Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays

-179risk0.12u→win0.07uPENDINGESPN box score →
first pitch in01:05:35
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-179

Closing

-179

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.8% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +16.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: 1d8676)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +16.6pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #18 vs this prop (-2.9% vs league avg over 275 games)
  • 80.8% over last 15 games

Line movement

-179-1790.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
21
Hit rate
52.6%
10-9
ROI
-15.28%
-0.44u
CLV avg
+0.90%
n=18
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (21 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-179
1.5587
Closing
-179
1.5587
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1996
UUIDbb65e86b-7896-407c-bb0a-e568046c6eb3
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-25 20:40 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash757b30b47862fe949e5f712ae4b28d81b28f25744c6473ebafb079c392a802fb
Closing line-179 captured 2026-08-25 21:41 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashbb3b4e4df44114f15e933b9e39410d165fca713121e1ea1c6fd1b7cb514906aa

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger96.1% hashed
    984 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close58.2% closed
    981 settled picks · 58.2% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public3 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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