Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 Hits
Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox
first pitch in01:38:11
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.
Edge
Empirical 87.5% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +24.6pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +24.6pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #8 vs this prop (+3.0% vs league avg over 305 games)
- Outdoor conditions at Rate Field: 10 mph wind blowing OUT (S): ball carries, HR-friendly; precip risk: partly cloudy then slight chance showers and thunderstorms.
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
21
Hit rate
52.6%
10-9
ROI
-15.28%
-0.44u
CLV avg
+0.90%
n=18
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (21 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1997
UUIDd18b205a-e278-44c5-8693-fae039c48078
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-25 20:40 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8f5951d73bcfb17d12249ca1a0680b60b4dffb4c9f610a2a085751ec496eabd8
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Why this receipt is trustable
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