Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-01🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED f61d6aa2

Daylen Lile Under 1.5 Total Bases

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

-190risk0.1u→win0.05u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-190

Closing

-160

CLV

-6.07%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 88.8% over last 15 games vs 65.5% implied → +14.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: 7cef69)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Washington Nationals3
Atlanta Braves8
Winner: Atlanta Braves · 2026-08-01
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-190
1.5263
Closing
-160
1.6250
Delta
-6.07%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1699
UUID1d00480a-a54f-4b96-9d3a-b4ca455e71ae
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-01 15:14 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf61d6aa208b86f520e808bec79df0fdf7543557c8f4d748040938739ce4a4402
Closing line-160 captured 2026-08-01 21:52 UTC
CLV delta-6.07%
Closing hash6ecf1e9c8ed697bbfbae25a35293c5f367b568234c09d458f8c6121f987a556e

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801