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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 97ad697d

Michael Harris II Over 0.5 Hits

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets (Game 2)

-250risk0.1u→win0.04u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-250

Closing

-250

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 71.4% implied → +9.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm) (ref: 18ef4b)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +9.6pt EV vs implied
  • 86.7% over last 15 games
  • Vegas total 7.5 (MLB avg 8.5; lower-scoring script, caveat for overs).

Line movement

-250-2500.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-250
1.4000
Closing
-250
1.4000
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1667
UUID29f691c7-f9eb-4099-82da-e28b81ebecf5
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-07-29 21:59 UTC
Graded2026-07-30 05:15 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823596:2026-07-29T17:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash97ad697d9a1b17cca16e5ba529ce7f9b0f24bd075b6a944994579f7d57d250e2
Closing line-250 captured 2026-07-29 22:08 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash74bd499768f195f3c742cf054c0b3e467411c912b0a68916a0f36da605adb38d

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.4% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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