Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-05🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 367ddfb8

Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 Hits

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

-176risk0.17u→win0.1u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.17u

Odds

-176

Closing

-170

CLV

-1.26%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 88.8% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +25.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Atlanta Braves2
Philadelphia Phillies4
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-09-05
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-176
1.5682
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
-1.26%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#7644
UUID03be0c13-03b6-4f69-9b5d-0fcdcc3cf5a4
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-05 20:05 UTC
Graded2026-09-06 01:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash367ddfb869ad9dd91f4de8106e4b247da18cebdcb64be8de377ef6f514674bb9
Closing line-170 captured 2026-09-05 20:38 UTC
CLV delta-1.26%
Closing hash3739db17e9728f88fa4fe846c5a392fd7caad9f5153fbe480495839d3e69a514

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,118 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public18 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801