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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-02🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 1fb0bf5b

Petey Halpin Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians

-210risk0.1u→win0.05u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-210

Closing

-210

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 67.7% implied → +11.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Arizona Diamondbacks0
Cleveland Guardians5
Winner: Cleveland Guardians · 2026-08-02
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-210
1.4762
Closing
-210
1.4762
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1712
UUID30b9eff9-30a9-47bc-867b-f89e3eaeb3cd
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-02 15:02 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 23:47 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1fb0bf5baa23bf13758b803c0577a3b96a32e7f3980513fd9e6ee2eac0e939f9
Closing line-210 captured 2026-08-02 16:22 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash4d3404ee102287c2a73618044816a3b673e8d2823728ce14147c385527ae5452

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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