Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 Hits
Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays
first pitch in05:29:43
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.
Edge
Empirical 87.5% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +23.8pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +23.8pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #15 vs this prop (-2.6% vs league avg over 273 games)
- 87.5% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
25
Settled
23
Hit rate
57.1%
12-9
ROI
-8.61%
-0.27u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=20
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#3246
UUID5b8a1905-ec1c-40b4-b982-983a85664d9b
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-26 15:15 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashb2d30d5f98d553d1a16af5dac35e145d00ad83342af0866a01a44fc7da4a4c61
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Why this receipt is trustable
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