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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-26🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED dbb0883d

Chandler Simpson Over 0.5 batter_singles

Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers

-176risk0.19u→win0.11uPENDINGESPN box score →
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.

Stake

0.19u

Odds

-176

Closing

-186

CLV

+1.99%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 91.5% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +27.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +27.7pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #24 vs this prop (-6.6% vs league avg over 275 games)
  • 91.5% over last 15 games

Line movement

-176-186-0.03 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
25
Settled
23
Hit rate
57.1%
12-9
ROI
-8.61%
-0.27u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=20
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-176
1.5682
Closing
-186
1.5376
Delta
+1.99%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#3245
UUID28fe7165-ecd5-405f-b942-c8e395a81408
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-26 15:15 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashdbb0883d15b95d3134a5785f5a1c4771707a810fe56789340b940e2801f2e3b3
Closing line-186 captured 2026-08-26 15:54 UTC
CLV delta+1.99%
Closing hash06e047d92e8f5ef64874e9b5b977715f9fff1918fa74ad19d58fe5dec8e0c45c

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger95.3% hashed
    996 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close58.2% closed
    986 settled picks · 58.2% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public10 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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