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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-28🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED dfe86e66

JJ Bleday Over 0.5 Hits

Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds

-200risk0.18u→win0.09u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.18u

Odds

-200

Closing

-200

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 90.6% over last 15 games vs 66.7% implied → +23.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Cleveland Guardians6
Cincinnati Reds5
Winner: Cleveland Guardians · 2026-07-28
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
2
Settled
2
Hit rate
100.0%
2-0
ROI
+57.26%
+0.17u
CLV avg
-0.31%
n=2
Last 6 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (2 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-200
1.5000
Closing
-200
1.5000
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1592
UUID35d23c51-720a-4e63-aff7-3e3e87f221df
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-28 20:44 UTC
Graded2026-08-23 20:26 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashdfe86e66e63c137c4aaa1cf87ef000619f94e7a87c70b0601843a13fc2df558a
Closing line-200 captured 2026-07-28 21:53 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash138f1778ab23bffa6ff3efeb50a2bddf2da65d10b18a5f33b9dd01c0849f06dd

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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