Jovana Nogic Over 6.5 Points
Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury
-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 88.9% over last 9 games vs 63.6% implied → +15.2pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 9 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +15.2pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #4 vs this prop (+5.9% vs league avg over 87 games)
- 88.9% over last 9 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1081
UUID373af5b2-5d27-40b8-96d1-362d0209de4f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-01 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-02 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash0bbae7b349f831b6dda8c3f3d3c5746f4f1376aa7955a9f25c47c2cd8584c6d3
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public11 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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