Jade Melbourne Over 7.5 Points
Seattle Storm @ Dallas Wings
-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
Edge
Empirical 72.7% over last 11 games vs 62.3% implied → +7.7pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 11 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +7.7pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #15 vs this prop (-13.8% vs league avg over 96 games)
- 72.7% over last 11 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1080
UUID99d73da3-5e6c-4ed0-bf11-e93f7173fd59
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-01 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-02 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash41fe1c08aae5dca4b810a585d057b4cddfb3d2916991705725c8c03f3046c4a9
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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