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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 05d9f7ee

Bryce Eldridge Over 0.5 Hits

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants

-164risk0.16u→win0.1uPENDINGESPN box score →
first pitch in20:34
Bet onDK

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-164

Closing

-195

CLV

+6.41%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +24.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +24.5pt EV vs implied
  • 86.7% over last 15 games
  • L10 hit-rate: 90% (9/10)

Line movement

-164-195-0.10 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
34
Settled
33
Hit rate
66.7%
22-11
ROI
+4.62%
+0.23u
CLV avg
-0.40%
n=32
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (33 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-195
1.5128
Delta
+6.41%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#4108
UUIDbe9e4b2d-c086-4808-8814-dff0f7650c3c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-29 15:03 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash05d9f7ee92eec1ab7ad720090e8ec717b52d0cc079e478fc6d76fef22de68dee
Closing line-195 captured 2026-08-29 18:35 UTC
CLV delta+6.41%
Closing hashede2c0e4a131bad3414bbc92dc4054334457cb2805ab37b361c2f5f7f39df5f8

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger93.2% hashed
    1,023 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close59.2% closed
    1,012 settled picks · 59.2% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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