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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-12🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED c5510be7

Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 Total Bases

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays

-170risk0.21u→win0.12u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.21u

Odds

-170

Closing

-165

CLV

-1.11%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 94.3% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +31.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
New York Yankees5
Toronto Blue Jays8
Winner: Toronto Blue Jays · 2026-06-12
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-165
1.6061
Delta
-1.11%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1141
UUID42a6433f-c085-44d1-b717-1d97f3c76648
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-12 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-13 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashc5510be7708afca1915c9cbf30841fd9626d7aa2e6edacc9632cce86bb66be89
Closing line-165 captured 2026-06-12 22:07 UTC
CLV delta-1.11%
Closing hash23140db97601910bb2388f06adb386e86f462c74a5184639aafc679ee841956d

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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