Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 Hits
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
-275risk1u→win0.36u
WIN
Edge
Friendly alt prop at 73.3% implied (target 70%) — trades payout for hit rate.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side at friendly rung (betmgm)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#466
UUID644f56c6-a888-4590-8ff3-db383661fb02
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-05 23:24 UTC
Graded2026-05-05 23:42 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashba1cf133377808eac0338b0d23994b6320ece60cc57e9a6932e9b441f5783ca9
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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