Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins
-350risk1u→win0.29u
WIN
Edge
Friendly alt prop at 77.8% implied (target 70%) — trades payout for hit rate.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side at friendly rung (fanduel)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#461
UUIDdc243b64-b98a-450d-b437-fdaf8b12b1f8
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-05 23:24 UTC
Graded2026-05-06 01:52 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashb8d82ce797c23b2f3f26081277c47f396c260a93619ef206f4a035e6944badaa
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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