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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-03🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED be984800

Kelsey Plum Over 11.5 Points

Phoenix Mercury @ Chicago Sky

-244risk0.18u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.18u

Odds

-244

Closing

-152

CLV

-14.96%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 92.9% over last 14 games vs 70.9% implied → +20.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 14 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +20.5pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #9 vs this prop (+0.7% vs league avg over 79 games)
  • 92.9% over last 14 games

Line movement

-244-152+0.25 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-244
1.4098
Closing
-152
1.6579
Delta
-14.96%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1724
UUID49f4870a-0efd-4590-ab9c-afdb2e9e797a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-03 20:43 UTC
Graded2026-08-04 04:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashbe984800549ddb4fb471f0860f2a97dabb3634038ff3bed18e312985d58416ee
Closing line-152 captured 2026-08-03 23:45 UTC
CLV delta-14.96%
Closing hash4c515eada39d541008216310e5b76606f826455e60ab1ff2ad3859e150e5b89b

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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