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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-11🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 98794e35

A'ja Wilson Over 8.5 Rebounds

Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces

-164risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-164

Closing

-172

CLV

+1.79%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +17.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 5eb587)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=2 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +17.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #9 vs this prop (-0.6% vs league avg over 98 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-164-172-0.03 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
22
Hit rate
63.6%
14-8
ROI
-0.21%
-0.01u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=22
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-172
1.5814
Delta
+1.79%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1353
UUIDdf04cb6e-54f1-4d0c-b5f1-347a99803255
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-11 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-07-12 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash98794e3536c9cce3e47fab212eaf0fb3daf6d0815330cdd41c4b7e15887df4ba
Closing line-172 captured 2026-07-11 20:49 UTC
CLV delta+1.79%
Closing hash6f16aa12e4df079ff7f51216b9ff8bb4e48a03a13872c6e00e915c43db100ab9

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.9% closed
    1,119 settled picks · 61.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public17 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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