Otto Lopez Over 0.5 Hits
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
-275risk0.1u→win0.04u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 83.6% over last 15 games vs 73.3% implied → +10.3pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +10.3pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #12 vs this prop (+0.8% vs league avg over 294 games)
- 83.6% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
25
Settled
24
Hit rate
66.7%
16-8
ROI
+3.44%
+0.12u
CLV avg
+0.47%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (24 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#549
UUIDb1e777ee-dd6c-4778-b428-d1a61228cc96
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-08 18:37 UTC
Graded2026-05-09 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash840448afddf01bce8fa0ebb006cf283aadd96afdf618afa2b93f0891b0151525
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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