George Springer Over 0.5 Hits
NY Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
-167risk0.17u→win0.1uVOID
Edge
Empirical 87.5% over last 15 games vs 62.5% implied → +25.0pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: fa42a6)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +25.0pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #11 vs this prop (+3.3% vs league avg over 172 games)
- 87.5% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
21
Settled
21
Hit rate
52.6%
10-9
ROI
-15.28%
-0.44u
CLV avg
+0.90%
n=18
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (21 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1782
UUID5a89b97a-3605-4028-b350-06a06354b5a0
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-15 15:04 UTC
Graded2026-08-23 16:50 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashad786f6fcd0abc95311a5a1479cc9a6c32372efb06608c3622f3c6332c363f91
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger96.1% hashed981 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close58.3% closed981 settled picks · 58.3% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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