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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-26🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED b2d30d5f

Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 Hits

Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays

-176risk0.16u→win0.09u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-176

Closing

-170

CLV

-1.26%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 87.5% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +23.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Kansas City Royals0
Toronto Blue Jays3
Winner: Toronto Blue Jays · 2026-08-26
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-176
1.5682
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
-1.26%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#3246
UUID5b8a1905-ec1c-40b4-b982-983a85664d9b
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-26 15:15 UTC
Graded2026-08-27 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashb2d30d5f98d553d1a16af5dac35e145d00ad83342af0866a01a44fc7da4a4c61
Closing line-170 captured 2026-08-26 21:50 UTC
CLV delta-1.26%
Closing hash1ff340068e9a1715062e32ca88d4efcae1d4b5c498ac6ba92fe178ba4bae3482

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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