Jack Eichel Over 0.5 Points
Vegas Golden Knights @ Anaheim Ducks
-260risk0.1u→win0.04u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 78.6% over last 14 games vs 72.2% implied → +5.9pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
NHL player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 14 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +5.9pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #12 vs this prop (+13.4% vs league avg over 234 games)
- 78.6% over last 14 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
39
Settled
39
Hit rate
68.4%
26-12
ROI
+7.62%
+0.43u
CLV avg
-0.38%
n=38
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (39 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#640
UUID1f416eb7-ddf8-4fdc-baf1-8190d8881d5d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-09 22:49 UTC
Graded2026-05-11 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash4463534ea15d030a98b7ce7ac272f0d8d02b355cffe44761ce8bcbdf408f1ffd
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger95.6% hashed990 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close58.4% closed986 settled picks · 58.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public4 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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