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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-30🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED dfd78898

Leila Lacan Over 0.5 3PM

Connecticut Sun @ Chicago Sky

-243risk0.1u→win0.04u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-243

Closing

-246

CLV

+0.36%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 70.8% implied → +9.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 43686b)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +9.2pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #10 vs this prop (-1.9% vs league avg over 87 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-243-246-0.01 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-243
1.4115
Closing
-246
1.4065
Delta
+0.36%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1673
UUID64795767-036e-4ec0-8907-cd267faef2aa
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-30 21:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-31 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashdfd7889805577d3a3c0471854d1d6f44e7e09f899fa436c1f3b93cb62286dac6
Closing line-246 captured 2026-07-30 22:39 UTC
CLV delta+0.36%
Closing hash34b858548d0f7937a51ab7d17f9a1e88bf076793ec59c871eda1b561d0b8d993

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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