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ufcMoneyline.2026-05-10LOCKED 7f874418

Khamzat Chimaev ML

Sean Strickland @ Khamzat Chimaev

-475PENDING
Bet onDKFDMGMCZRESPNRVRSFANHR

Stake

1u

Odds

-475

Closing

-500

CLV

+0.88%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: betmgm)

Signal

Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

UFC Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model

Risk

sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.

CLV math

Posted
-475
1.2105
Closing
-500
1.2000
Delta
+0.88%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#658
UUIDb997b601-a672-4629-9142-786d7f7cd6ba
Surfacesharp_degraded:UFC
Posted2026-05-10 03:10 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7f874418048a568484496c3729bae606071d2a90b51d36de2e6ca974a9c550f6
Closing line-500 captured 2026-05-10 03:45 UTC
CLV delta+0.88%
Closing hash7b0f6d61cfb90c48e0126df680f0d934e13883ee70102ad877b19a79075c6ef8
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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