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ufcMoneyline.2026-05-10◆◆◆◇◇Nuro Edge 6.0LOCKED 7f874418

Khamzat Chimaev ML

Sean Strickland @ Khamzat Chimaev

-475risk1u→win0.21u
LOSS

Stake

1u

Odds

-475

Closing

-500

CLV

+0.88%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: betmgm)

Signal

Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

UFC Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model

Risk

sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.

Game context

Context signals

  • 🎯 **Why this favorite?** Khamzat Chimaev priced at **82.6% implied** to win — book's read on every input (lineups, splits, weather, totals) compressed into one number. Bot's heuristic: take the favorite when the line is firm. Hit-rate over a long sample beats no-edge baseline net of juice.
  • 📈 **Best of 13 books** ➊ BETMGM -475 ➋ BOVADA -480 ➌ DRAFTKINGS -485
  • 🥊 **Fighter stats** • Khamzat Chimaev · **15-0-0**: 74" / 75" reach / 32y / 185lb _"Borz"_ • Sean Strickland · **30-7-0**: 73" / 76" reach / 35y / 185lb 🧠 Sean Strickland carries +22 pro fights at 81% win rate — experience edge under deep-water pressure

Line movement

-475-500-0.01 dec
Related Picks (11)

CLV math

Posted
-475
1.2105
Closing
-500
1.2000
Delta
+0.88%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#658
UUIDb997b601-a672-4629-9142-786d7f7cd6ba
Surfacesharp_degraded:UFC
Posted2026-05-10 03:10 UTC
Graded2026-05-22 15:27 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7f874418048a568484496c3729bae606071d2a90b51d36de2e6ca974a9c550f6
Closing line-500 captured 2026-05-10 03:45 UTC
CLV delta+0.88%
Closing hash7b0f6d61cfb90c48e0126df680f0d934e13883ee70102ad877b19a79075c6ef8

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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