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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-18🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED f5ce89f8

Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Total Bases

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

-165risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-165

Closing

-185

CLV

+4.25%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 95.7% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +22.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Miami Marlins4
Philadelphia Phillies6
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-08-18
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-185
1.5405
Delta
+4.25%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1803
UUID6d1d89bb-dd16-47d9-a487-d437dad05643
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-18 20:40 UTC
Graded2026-08-19 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf5ce89f8ad265c1600a21c25276cef33dc022f4e162a4ba579540334b549f7ee
Closing line-185 captured 2026-08-18 21:15 UTC
CLV delta+4.25%
Closing hash90de6fe1acc6746541546de2a8b0854e16ce9574d4fed586e71a4a5caf350700

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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