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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-09◆◆◆◇◇Nuro Edge 6.0LOCKED 51a8af9f

Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 Assists

Name: NuroPicks
Availability: InStock
Author: NuroPicks LLC

Indiana Fever @ Phoenix Mercury

-164risk0.1u→win0.06u

LOSS

ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-164

Closing

-156

CLV

-1.91%

Source

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time

Edge

Empirical 66.7% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +4.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

⊞Game context

Context signals

+4.5pt EV vs implied
Opp ranks #10 vs this prop (-1.5% vs league avg over 98 games)
66.7% over last 15 games

Line movement

-164-156+0.03 dec

◯Model Record (30d)

prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window

Picks

23

Settled

23

Hit rate

60.9%

14-9

ROI

-4.96%

-0.17u

CLV avg

+0.96%

n=23

Last 20 settled · cumulative units

ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.

◢Related Picks (15)

Same team (7d)

LKelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM@ -1702026-08-16 WNneka Ogwumike Over 14.5 Points@ -1672026-08-11 WKelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM@ -1782026-08-11 WKelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM@ -1752026-08-08 LKelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM@ -1792026-08-06 WKelsey Plum Over 14.5 Points@ -1642026-08-05 WKelsey Plum Over 11.5 Points@ -2442026-08-03 WKelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points@ -1922026-08-02 WKelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points@ -2422026-07-31 WKahleah Copper Over 2.5 Rebounds@ -2312026-07-29

Same model

LT.J. Rumfield Over 0.5 Hits@ -1642026-09-09 LRafael Devers Over 0.5 Total Bases@ -1672026-09-08 WCal Raleigh Over 0.5 Hits@ -1672026-09-08 LLawrence Butler Over 0.5 Hits@ -1702026-09-08 WHéctor Rodríguez Over 0.5 Hits@ -1762026-09-07

CLV math

Posted

-164

1.6098

Closing

-156

1.6410

Delta

-1.91%

posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1339

UUID8442a292-67c3-4819-9363-4cc9396a1ea1

Surfaceprop-slate-daily

Posted2026-07-09 22:33 UTC

Graded2026-07-10 05:35 UTC

ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger

Opening hash51a8af9f4e99de1172fed33b4ecc71070547090657f699ba5c20f84d3199bed0

Closing line-156 captured 2026-07-10 00:44 UTC

CLV delta-1.91%

Closing hash7a9e466a734362a4c8639cf92ea688a00912fa46708621bc7e34654593217e70

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Why this receipt is trustable

Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
Graded against close62.0% closed
1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
Every pick public14 pending
Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.

Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

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