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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-04🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED de7a02e6

Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 Hits

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox

-167risk0.18u→win0.11u
WIN

Stake

0.18u

Odds

-167

Closing

-167

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 88.8% over last 15 games vs 62.5% implied → +26.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betrivers) (ref: 508923)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +26.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #19 vs this prop (-5.5% vs league avg over 243 games)
  • 88.8% over last 15 games

Line movement

-167-1670.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-167
1.5988
Closing
-167
1.5988
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1735
UUID8850a3d4-51e9-4698-bd2f-5286a47a2071
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-04 20:37 UTC
Graded2026-08-05 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashde7a02e6286e4e09269fadc0d69187b21a63bf1a2ab06bdcd946e4a2aa786788
Closing line-167 captured 2026-08-04 21:49 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hasha2490321e642fecedc1c5fc3e3ba61af4f00461c72d9dd15939d46158ee2f6d6

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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