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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-08🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 1276e3f9

Chelsea Gray Over 5.5 Assists

Las Vegas Aces @ Minnesota Lynx

-167risk0.21u→win0.13u
WIN

Stake

0.21u

Odds

-167

Closing

-170

CLV

+0.67%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 62.5% implied → +30.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +30.8pt EV vs implied
  • 93.3% over last 15 games
  • Vegas total 180.5 (WNBA avg 165; high-scoring environment).

Line movement

-167-170-0.01 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-167
1.5988
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
+0.67%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1748
UUID8badd2a6-76f0-44f5-a49c-e9375b4b961f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-08 15:02 UTC
Graded2026-08-08 20:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1276e3f90e8a1a5690e7ffd27e85f72355827e5ee577baaae39d94960c568e40
Closing line-170 captured 2026-08-08 15:34 UTC
CLV delta+0.67%
Closing hash71b8077857a2e5fdd4c24d6d1cb786d115b2edd6a40f9fafa16cdeff06aedb7d

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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