Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Total Bases
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
Edge
Empirical 82.8% over last 15 games vs 62.5% implied → +20.2pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betrivers) (ref: aeb11c)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
San Diego Padres7
San Francisco Giants6
Winner: San Diego Padres · 2026-09-12
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
25
Settled
24
Hit rate
66.7%
16-8
ROI
+3.44%
+0.12u
CLV avg
+0.47%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (24 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#9480
UUID6b25cf6e-0610-4bf6-a41d-4a13650cdc6d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-12 15:12 UTC
Graded2026-09-12 23:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash176c1327124dd7c9185a739530c7f69476421506622199ad493424a0223133de
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.6% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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