Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 66.1% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Tampa Bay Rays → home spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Baltimore Orioles1
Tampa Bay Rays4
Winner: Tampa Bay Rays · 2026-05-19
Related Picks (16)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-195
1.5128
Closing
-196
1.5102
Delta
+0.17%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#981
UUIDeb6158da-14fd-4329-a01b-c8396e4001b1
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-19 21:26 UTC
Graded2026-05-20 01:23 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:822979:2026-05-19T22:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8ee9e698fa7f15e948f2b4db76db3845be98d696f58b7ad99e2a655a26229160
Closing line-196 captured 2026-05-19 22:42 UTC
CLV delta+0.17%
Closing hash486fede32a0ef593cc9b9cc59d7ae354f3f82e50b3b91fcb83ac6ae80e53b2a6
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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