Under 9
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Edge
Friendly alt under at 65.5% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: vegas total 7.5 ≤ 7.5 (low-scoring band) → under.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Baltimore Orioles1
Tampa Bay Rays4
Winner: Tampa Bay Rays · 2026-05-19
Related Picks (16)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-190
1.5263
Closing
-107
1.9346
Delta
-21.10%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#982
UUID727f96b0-7d41-4f4a-b88b-8ac1c6f6535c
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-19 21:26 UTC
Graded2026-05-20 01:28 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:822979:2026-05-19T22:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashed6112e287e11b1c7ce202e436c43a42f019ba9e7905f4769a496724d6194780
Closing line-107 captured 2026-05-19 22:42 UTC
CLV delta-21.10%
Closing hash1d4050755354b05ed48a52b5a8ea8d3f1f3a37edfb4e41446e1d0c9fb453880b
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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