St. Louis Cardinals -1
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 50.2% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite St. Louis Cardinals → home spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Arizona Diamondbacks2
St. Louis Cardinals3
Winner: St. Louis Cardinals · 2026-06-22
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-101
1.9901
Closing
+140
2.4000
Delta
-17.08%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1301
UUID1f78fcd8-f374-4bc7-8cbd-4da4354cf777
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-22 23:16 UTC
Graded2026-06-23 02:17 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823040:2026-06-22T23:45:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash4d11fb1e537adb262f799649e6119980405feda1978328ce0cdbd93202f9d974
Closing line+140 captured 2026-06-22 23:46 UTC
CLV delta-17.08%
Closing hashd70fc41c77247aabb2e6df6889490af947ccbc1dc20485def50daf74a6c8cb6c
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger81.9% hashed1,267 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.6% closed1,256 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public11 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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