Justin Wrobleski Over 3.5 Strikeouts
LA Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
-179risk0.11u→win0.06u
LOSS
Edge
Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +15.8pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +15.8pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #16 vs this prop (-0.9% vs league avg over 193 games)
- 80.0% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1753
UUIDa0a04215-b0de-419f-a664-423d5760aaa7
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-09 14:20 UTC
Graded2026-08-09 23:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashd3cd32c85b7a9ff39e5a43486ba317d6bd418f31fae6376445232290340c2328
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Why this receipt is trustable
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