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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-20🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 64d54151

Taylor Ward Over 0.5 Hits

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers

-170risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-170

Closing

-152

CLV

-4.20%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +17.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Baltimore Orioles3
Los Angeles Dodgers2
Winner: Baltimore Orioles · 2026-06-20
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-152
1.6579
Delta
-4.20%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1255
UUIDaaafc691-a7b7-4316-8795-8bff4c04cd33
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-20 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-21 05:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash64d54151c049473ef911bccaa8bef748bc8dbfdf6b2622e91bf5e18c14233a93
Closing line-152 captured 2026-06-21 00:41 UTC
CLV delta-4.20%
Closing hashcc18c8cfeb2e9bd9dfd52cadb33d8f41f9239880e48b9fa387d16733b7ba9926

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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