New York Yankees -1
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 60.6% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite New York Yankees → home spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Cincinnati Reds10
New York Yankees2
Winner: Cincinnati Reds · 2026-06-20
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-154
1.6494
Closing
-101
1.9901
Delta
-17.12%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1241
UUID852e4efe-4f00-4b20-8d12-f03b21126597
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-20 16:21 UTC
Graded2026-06-20 20:35 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823532:2026-06-20T17:35:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8296265c9932db226f1d08fa4c6450bf8a659b15ba358cc4b7f14e9801c0b10e
Closing line-101 captured 2026-06-20 17:37 UTC
CLV delta-17.12%
Closing hash781cdb7e0943a36faa6d2db3ec15c7ed733e3fc9078a5781ca983a7a8b0acb31
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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