Under 10.5
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees
Edge
Friendly alt under at 60.0% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, under rung lower-juice (60.0% vs 60.8%).
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Cincinnati Reds10
New York Yankees2
Winner: Cincinnati Reds · 2026-06-20
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-150
1.6667
Closing
-109
1.9174
Delta
-13.08%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1242
UUID8b8c5e49-3afe-45f3-8b5b-cc85757da8f9
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-20 16:21 UTC
Graded2026-06-20 20:40 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823532:2026-06-20T17:35:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashc402f055c4dbc3c68da16dbc7227142e64b5f730d158c4d7550523154e6d8e30
Closing line-109 captured 2026-06-20 17:37 UTC
CLV delta-13.08%
Closing hash8a0a3d4cc9651e51afc8e3f63ec0073e4748b3c5e49da910c1a92fec5323dad0
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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