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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-17🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED ab48b024

Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 Hits

Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees

-170risk0.13u→win0.08u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.13u

Odds

-170

Closing

-176

CLV

+1.28%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 81.6% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +18.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Chicago White Sox5
New York Yankees10
Winner: New York Yankees · 2026-06-17
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-176
1.5682
Delta
+1.28%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1205
UUIDb094eab0-c59b-4a85-a73f-9f2bdbf15915
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-17 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-06-18 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashab48b02453d29db3ffd3e4b763d6fa36a5f4600016ae0da819d63ae900c6cd86
Closing line-176 captured 2026-06-17 21:37 UTC
CLV delta+1.28%
Closing hashaa380da615642cf8da8c613c7dab8ad9966309cd91521bc5336ad2e4015b7e95

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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