Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 148cf104

Jose Fernandez Under 1.5 Total Bases

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

-164risk0.22u→win0.13u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-164

Closing

-150

CLV

-3.41%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +36.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (caesars)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Arizona Diamondbacks7
Colorado Rockies2
Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks · 2026-09-22
Model Record (30d)
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
66.7%
2-1
ROI
+6.48%
+0.04u
CLV avg
+1.45%
n=2
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-150
1.6667
Delta
-3.41%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#12533
UUIDb46ec3af-dff0-4fe3-abe3-d6679810ac3c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-22 20:38 UTC
Graded2026-09-23 04:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash148cf104fcc771feac39801f2f66adadbb36a924abd84713e72631b9baadb3fb
Closing line-150 captured 2026-09-22 23:22 UTC
CLV delta-3.41%
Closing hashfb25e963b902549f4a00b108166558c1660c8da72a142f023aba7c54b8ff6c39

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.2% hashed
    1,374 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.7% closed
    1,373 settled picks · 65.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public1 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801