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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 11e534bd

Alan Roden Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

-190risk0.1u→win0.05u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-190

Closing

-190

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 98.0% over last 11 games vs 65.5% implied → +13.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 11 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Kansas City Royals4
Minnesota Twins0
Winner: Kansas City Royals · 2026-07-29
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-190
1.5263
Closing
-190
1.5263
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1656
UUIDbc80aa79-7aa7-4bcb-8a0a-1c6d8a566cb3
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-29 20:41 UTC
Graded2026-07-30 05:45 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash11e534bd151dc28b09c5124800346925575870ae3e0b672d2f36efdfb77299b7
Closing line-190 captured 2026-07-29 22:14 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash4636ac6d32b8ae2b260c799b2cefbab7eacbd43e37d288a609e5211fee77abb7

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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