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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-14🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED efd488d4

Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Hits

Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-168

CLV

+0.68%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 71.9% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +9.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Tampa Bay Rays8
Los Angeles Angels3
Winner: Tampa Bay Rays · 2026-06-14
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (15)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-168
1.5952
Delta
+0.68%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1172
UUIDd3480671-e52c-457a-bb73-25b7dcadfa30
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-14 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-06-15 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashefd488d494aae4a78f50fe5b52328a8ac71762ab6f7963fb1aede308eb0dafa3
Closing line-168 captured 2026-06-14 20:31 UTC
CLV delta+0.68%
Closing hash620d029037c0fc2a703a742e6ea472e262d906c041af29682145b2a0ba1d8133

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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