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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 402ecf91

Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 Hits

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners

-164risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-164

Closing

-176

CLV

+2.65%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +17.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Houston Astros5
Seattle Mariners6
Winner: Seattle Mariners · 2026-09-23
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
40.0%
2-3
ROI
-30.20%
-0.19u
CLV avg
+1.95%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-176
1.5682
Delta
+2.65%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#12762
UUIDde53eaeb-d265-4203-9e77-46e2ac0e10f1
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-23 15:13 UTC
Graded2026-09-24 05:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash402ecf91799d6ad25eb778885680bf0c9feae839608cca1b6a3c4a58f1da6aa7
Closing line-176 captured 2026-09-24 00:52 UTC
CLV delta+2.65%
Closing hash327cd64fb2e6c2d286fca99454c61af1e575041410ea00050803fecb8d078475

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.2% hashed
    1,374 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.7% closed
    1,373 settled picks · 65.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public1 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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