Janelle Salaun Over 3.5 Rebounds
Atlanta Dream @ Golden State Valkyries
Edge
Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 63.4% implied → +10.0pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +10.0pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #8 vs this prop (-0.6% vs league avg over 115 games)
- 73.3% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1306
UUIDf53a3eb0-eda8-4693-a3b2-5751abff1681
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-23 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-25 05:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash58e8f73999db7b9b5eeafe9e24b49196e6a5012f19a101d3cef24a3d60101c6e
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Why this receipt is trustable
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