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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-11🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED ffada7ff

Kelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM

New York Liberty @ Indiana Fever

-178risk0.25u→win0.14u
WIN

Stake

0.25u

Odds

-178

Closing

-172

CLV

-1.24%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 64.0% implied → +36.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: ece94a)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +36.0pt EV vs implied
  • 100.0% over last 15 games
  • Vegas total 190.5 (WNBA avg 165; high-scoring environment).

Line movement

-178-172+0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-178
1.5618
Closing
-172
1.5814
Delta
-1.24%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1759
UUIDf7717ecd-e040-440d-b83a-888025fcbc4c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-11 20:42 UTC
Graded2026-08-12 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashffada7ffc3f468bd89ae1181c32e90f0d01483b18821ac107dc472e9efb59f27
Closing line-172 captured 2026-08-11 22:21 UTC
CLV delta-1.24%
Closing hash914d76e32b08a3ce2fbb58ab41d8ea4c1afc2d2d09ef3e1a63c437b0a78beb02

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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